In the case of high economic growth, high inflation? I think not. First, the production of various industries in general surplus, the price of power is insufficient. The international economy can only be a slow recovery, not the pressure of imported inflation. Third, the large harvest of grain production in 2009, the rate of rise and rise of food prices as farmers’ income and agricultural costs will be higher than the average industry, but may not spikes. However, due to the agricultural products affected by the weather and many variables need to pay close attention to.
Q: What are the favorable conditions for development in 2010?
Tang Min: favorable conditions for China’s economic development in 2010. The first is a relatively good international environment. The economy of the United States and Europe and Japan and other countries and regions have begun to slow recovery, developing countries also came out from the crisis, so the external environment is favorable for China’s exports.
In Flextronics where the new Green industrial zone surrounding villages, many villagers have received a recruitment flyer. According to Flextronics, responsible person to explain, employment gap is the fact that the recruitment of older literacy workers and labor standards “diving” should be understood as in solving the employment problems of 45-year-old population difficult employment. The person in charge of these workers into the plant to go through training before taking a post, not to say that the understanding of the word into factory work.
Jingan town, Doumen District, the Madonna of the new Student Village, the past five year, with seven floors of rental, but do not increase due to migrant workers in recent years to reduce the rent, her building in order to pay off the arrears, chose to enter the Wei Flextronics, and young people together on an assembly line, she said: “work of great strength, but no way.”
From 2008 to 2012, the Pearl River Delta manufacturing wages nearly doubled, but the accompanying cost of enterprises employing 15% -20% of the annual increment. Also worth noting that, despite the Guangdong wages and benefits to improve step by step the wage levels of the labor exporting province of Sichuan, Hunan, Guangxi local not standing still, and some cities even almost equal to the Pearl River Delta.
Workers’ wage demands, Dongguan, China Securities News reporter interviewed several companies recruiting on behalf of said will raise wages, but not much. The recruitment of a metal factory representative said the one hand, grab the talent, they do not get the point of wages, hire people; the other hand, the economy has just improved, what will happen can not be determined, but also consider the cost of personnel not significantly adjust High salary levels.
Enterprises are facing more serious situation than the 2008 financial crisis. The two major markets in Europe and America there are serious debt problems, the industry pessimistically expected, may take three to four years to recover.
The “orders shortage” is the foundry business in the Pearl River Delta feeling unprecedented pressure.
Christmas orders are shipped in November and December in previous years, the plants are in full swing to mold, to do preliminary preparation for the second year of the new order, but this year could barely see the new orders, while the complement of the old order also depends on the European and American markets Christmas sales of OEM for international toy brands Mattel Mission Hills in Shenzhen PowerLeader toy factory director Xue Xiaowei told reporters.
The export tax rebate policy adjustment, Zhejiang’s industrial exports. To adjust export tax rebate involved in export of goods from January to May this year, the export of data: 2038, accounting for 37.1 percent of the province’s 5198 exports of commodity categories, which canceled 213 reduction in 1817; involve the removal or reduction of the goods of the export tax rebate of $ 24.09 billion, accounting for 50.9 percent of total merchandise exports in the province; involved in the export tax rebate cut, 17708 of merchandise exports, accounting for 73.6% of the total number of export enterprises in the province. The export tax rebate rate adjustment, the larger impact of export commodities, clothing, furniture, footwear and plastic products (which account for canceled or reduced by 42.7% of the total commodity export tax rebate), as well as luggage, fasteners, bedding, fixtures and tools, etc.; impact of large enterprises is the lack of bargaining power of small businesses rely solely on the survival of the export tax rebate; affect the larger business in hand to fulfill the long orders.
Judgment on the export tax rebate rate adjustment, a total of three sentences: First, a greater impact. Many enterprises the cost of exports and the normal operations of the immediate impact, and the lack of adjustment of the transition period. Second, the impact should not be overestimated. Previous adjustment of the result is a smooth transition, the ability of enterprises to cope with gradually increased, and many companies have planned a considerable part of business through price increases to digest the impact of (a quarter of the national average unit price of export commodities over the same period last year rose more than 5%) . Third, further form Daobi impact the transformation of foreign trade growth mode.
World economy “cold” incoming, has been on China’s export-oriented enterprises have a greater impact.In Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, a city, enterprises are facing the order transfer, exchange rate fluctuations, increased friction, the increase of the cost problem.
In the face of the complex economic environment at home and abroad, the Pearl River Delta of the export-oriented enterprises to search for new business opportunities in crack.
The foreign trade situation is comparable to a period of financial crisis
In mid November, a Dongguan garment factory responsible person told the reporter, orders for the transfer of enterprises have become a severe test.
The responsible person said, the first ten months of this year, total sales fell into three or four.Previous orders will be on thirty thousand or forty thousand, now five thousand or six thousand, less only more than one thousand pieces.As the labor, land cost is low, and the language, foreign investors will be simple style of clothing orders were transferred to India, Bangladesh and other countries.
The order has only foreign trade enterprises are faced with the plight of a side.Reporter discovered in the investigation, the different foreign trade enterprises the cost structure, product type is different, and in the plight of the feeling is different.In the textile, footwear and other labor-intensive industries, the shortage of labor pain empathy; to hit the market in Europe and America ceramics, toys, LED industry, by the exchange rate, trade protectionism has the greatest effect; in the capital-intensive manufacturing industry downstream, is the first to feel the pressure of financial stringency.
The clothing company responsible for the labor force shortage and complained, “the factory turns out to have 120 people, now more than 70 people, and really sat down in the parking space of more than 20 individuals, many people choose when temporary workers.The original introduced a person do half a year, can get one hundred or two hundred yuan fee, now publish new measure, fee has been raised to 1000 yuan, but still didn’t have enough.Hope after the Spring Festival passes through the old staff back to more people.”News of the total 3 pages, the page first 123
In 2008, baigou social output value completed 10.75 billion yuan, up 32.8 percent; market turnover of 25.8 billion yuan, an increase of 25%; fiscal revenue of 150 million yuan a year, an increase of 23%; fixed assets investment of 14.5 billion , an increase of 32%.
However, with the total economy and the city have been expanding, Baigou into the plight of the “small horse cart, a small town pipe city. Hongqiang said before the White Town deputy county towns, there is no county-level functions and county authority. To do a license or certificate, baigou tens of thousands of merchants and businesses, several times back and forth in baigou and Gaobeidian, inefficient operation of business enterprises moaning and groaning. In addition, baigou can not do, “a government, a financial” most of the taxes had turned over, the financial blood transfusion, not to the enterprise for the construction of capital out of the question. The bigger problem is that financial institutions in the baigou only set up to handle at no lending privileges. , Had a negative impact of rapid economic development in baigou.
To completely resolve the institutional issues restricting baigou development, Baoding party secretary Song Taiping on May 7, 2008 to baigou field research. July 3, “Baoding” main three “City Development Plan (2008-2020)” appeared; July 28, baigou Baiyangdian Spa City sub-central city construction was officially launched; November 30, Hu Chunhua The governor directions baigou to build the Beijing Southern satellite towns.
Hebei province Baoding city white town government said today, the town will be on March 28th – 30 days to” Chinese characteristic town” identity is invited to participate in the 2010China urban investment fair.
Reportedly, this exposition by the national development and Reform Commission, the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission, the State Development Bank Shanghai branch is sponsorred jointly, discuss Chinese city to change the reality of development status and prospects for the future, explore the social folk capital into investment way, path analysis, Chinese medium and small city and the vast majority of small town contains investment opportunities, is the first to focus on” urban investment ” in the field of large international forum.
During the Expo, Baigou will focus on” a new city in the south to rise” this one theme, promote investment projects, investment information, investment environment and policy, and will participate in the exhibition, forum discussions, investment information exchange and investment negotiations and other activities.
White was known as” Chinese box package”, has been the national development and Reform Commission and other 11 ministries identified as “the small town development and reform pilot town”. Luggage Baigou industry is most characteristic, the most dynamic characteristic dominant industry. At present, the white is under construction with modern trade, logistics, light industry, tourism, leisure, famous commercial port in North Lu Hong Kong Logistics Zone, light industrial and manufacturing base for tourism and leisure industry belt.
In June 15th, the relevant departments of the state to issue urgent announcement, requirement market must set up the” plastic limit the” inform against a phone, and in the market to the public. Businesses providing unqualified plastic bags and provide free plastic bags, will hold the market responsibility.
Shift. Plastic limit order after the official implementation, non-woven fabrics with its convenient and durable soon enter people’s vision, and manufacturers have to publicize its environmental pollution, in a very short period of time can be completely decomposed and no residual, time is considered to be the best substitute for plastic bags, known as the” environmental protection bag”.
However, non-woven shopping bag really green?
Nonwoven fabric.
Plastic limit after just a year, cotton bag, paper bag not waterproof, was thrown out of the ” generation of plastic”. And bright colors, shapes of the non-woven shopping bags, gradually from behind the scenes to the front of the stage, to make known to every family “green star”.
According to the China Plastics Processing Industry Association estimates, China degradable plastic packaging products in the future market demand of about 2000000tons, the average price of 20000 yuan per ton, the market will have 40000000000yuan huge business opportunities.
The short technological process, high yield, wide source of raw materials, long service life and degradable non-woven fabric, the replacement of ultra-thin plastic bags market potential, it is self-evident.
Then, the nonwoven is what? Reporters access to information that: non-woven fabrics, a chemical fiber products, is the textile fiber or filament for directional or random support, form a fiber network structure, and mechanical, thermal or chemical methods such as sticky reinforcement and.
In the plastic limit deal before, everyone seemed to see the opportunities.
One industry operating households said, an A4size non-woven shopping bags, cost is1 yuan, and sold in the supermarket bag price3yuan to 5 yuan.
It is understood, in the coastal areas of Zhejiang, some of the original production of luggage processing factory, even many garment factory also aimed at the non-woven business, began to shift to the non-woven production.
In order to seize the non-woven products and the huge market, Carrefour, Metro, Wal-Mart and some other international supermarket giants have also launched its own brand of non-woven shopping bags.
In Beijing, easy first lotus flower supermarket Carrefour, cashier, hanging a variety of non-woven bags, price is in 3.5yuan to 5yuan, some still adopts” using the shopping ticket buy Bags” and other measures, so as to improve the enthusiasm of consumers use the environmental protection bag.
In June 15th, the Metro ( China ) also announced that, starting from today,38 at the National Mall to stop sales of plastic bags. This also means that, in the future, consumers may in some supermarkets to buy Plastic bags.
In fact, not cloth
One major businesses in large quantities for purchasing, distribution, on the other hand, more and more consumers with non-woven shopping bag. However, China’s Industrial Textiles Association director Zhu Minru has publicly called for the production of non-woven bags, also need to pay attention to the cost, waterproof, anti-oil, pollution and other functional problems, and recovery issues. So,” non-woven bags should take precautions against the two pollution”.
China Environmental Science Society of professional committee of green packaging and other professional bodies to businesses and consumers indicates:” non-woven bags and plastic products, a large number of long-term use, I will become a plastic bag after another great white pollution source.”
According to introduction, the nonwoven industry raw material composition is roughly:63%,23%,8% PP polyester viscose,2% for acrylic fiber,1.5% for the polyamide, remaining as other fiber.
As a result of non-woven bags reuse rate is much higher than that of the plastic bag, from this point of view is very green. It is the main component of polypropylene nonwoven fabric, and polypropylene is a kind of petroleum and chemical products, this material at room temperature or indoor environment is difficult to degrade, in an outdoor environment also need half a year to degrade.
In the view of experts”, non-woven fabric itself is chemical products, not the best substitute”. In addition, non-woven fabrics in the production process will consume a large amount of petroleum resources, say from this, non-woven shopping bag is not the true sense of the environmental protection bag.
” Food basket
At the same time, plastic limit order also prompted some businesses especially shopping, use a lot of paper bag.
In the eyes of environmentalists, paper bags although degradation in natural environment, but in the papermaking process caused by the consumption of energy resources and environmental pollution, may be more serious than the plastic shopping bag.
China engineering plastics industry association responsible person, whether paper bags, degradable bags, or other so-called” green”,” green” packaging products, both on the environment has certain effect, but only relatively small. Plastic bag production of white pollution is the real reason, excessive use and inadequate recycling.
At present, China daily consumption of all kinds of plastic bags, high of about 3000000000per person per day, if only using a plastic bag, and repeated use, every day can produce up to 2000000000 less plastic bags.
According to the standard set, plastic shopping bags are divided into 3 types, namely, ordinary plastic shopping bags, biodegradable plastic shopping bags, plastic shopping bags. According to the introduction, in which only the degradable plastic bags is environmental protection bag, divided into photodegradation and biodegradation of two.
Experts point out that, due to technical limitations at present in our country, some appearing on the market the so-called “bags”, are not degradable. So, in a sense, if the degradable plastic bags cost, down to the old people can accept, then, can let consumers continue to enjoy the convenient and practical at the same time, the white pollution truly effective resolve.
Moreover, the purpose lies in the plastic limit, consumer advocate heavy carrying bag,” food basket, thereby reducing the white pollution, to achieve the purpose of environmental protection. Therefore, in the search for other natural, biological substitute products at the same time, experts say, change the public consumption concept may be even more important.
Business owners under the pressure of downsizing and shift from the coast inland, and even “close down” frequently boarded the major media, but the creation of China’s reform and opening up 30 years of economic development miracle of manufacturing really become a hot potato?
Under the pressure of the traditional manufacturing industry is faced with severe challenges
This reporter has learned this year, due to macro-policy tightening, tighten the money supply, centralized a large number of labor-intensive, low value-added OEM enterprises in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian and other coastal areas of traditional manufacturing industries faced with severe challenges.
Jinan University, Industrial Economics Research Institute, Zhu Weiping, labor costs, environmental costs, raw material costs rise, making the investment in manufacturing comparative advantage shrunk. Changes in exchange rates of RMB appreciation, weaker exports, the downturn of the external environment, and enable investors to lose confidence in the future. Manufacturing money, and investors to take away funds from the manufacturing sector, in turn invest in other industries, is a rational behavior of investors. “Said Zhu Weiping.
The United States in December 16, 2008, the federal benchmark interest rate down to 0-0.25% range, the lowest in history
The euro zone, the European Central Bank in April 2, 2009will be the benchmark interest rate from 1.5% to1.25%, the lowest level since the start of
The United Kingdom in March 5, 2009, the British central bank announced that it would cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, the benchmark interest rate to 0.5% of the lowest point in history
Japan in December 19, 2008, Japan Central Bank decided the policy rate from 0.3% to0.1%
Australian reserve April 8, 2009, lowered the benchmark interest rate 25basis points to3%, is the Australian dollar since 50 years the lowest level
New Zealand March 12, 2009, New Zealand ‘s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3%, a record low
Korea since 2008since October, the central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate6 times continuously, the cumulative decline of 3.25percentage points, the benchmark interest rate to a record low of 2%
A quarter of China to cope with the international financial crisis, the policy effect has shown, some economic indicators appear to change actively, macroscopical economy glides quickly already contain the momentum.
Prospect of the two quarter, although the international financial crisis continues to spread, the world economic situation will not change much, our country economy environment also will be very serious, but the Chinese government still will be based on economy operation and the effectiveness of policy implementation, and constantly take strong and stable economic growth of macroeconomic regulation and control policy, the national economy will continue to be a good momentum of development, is expected in the first half of the year GDP growth rate at around 7%, the annual GDP growth will be around 8.3%.
One, investment growth rate will continue to accelerate
Since this year, the international economic environment and the severe and complicated cases, to continue to maintain steady and rapid economic development, national implementation of expanding economic policy, increase people’s livelihood projects, infrastructure, ecological environment and post-disaster reconstruction projects such as investment, the investment growth rate to rise substantially, a quarter of the total social investment in fixed assets an increase of 28.8% over the same period last year, up by 4.2 percentage points, there has been a rapid growth trend.
After the three quarter investment promotion growth of positive factors are: first, the state will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary policy, increase further the implementation of the 4trillion yuan economic stimulus efforts, in speeding up the first two batches of investment and construction projects has been issued at the same time, also issued the third batch of the central investment projects. In addition, the government will also introduce measures to encourage private investment, study and formulate a stable and expanding the utilization of foreign capital policy, promote the steady growth of investment.
Two is the beginning of the year since the bank credit volume increases substantially, one quarter of the financial institutions RMB loans increased4.58 yuan, up by more than 3.25trillion yuan, including long-term loans amounted to1.86 yuan, while at the same time the source of investment funds in the bank loan was only678500000000 yuan, reflect a considerable amount of investment loan does not reach the project construction units, together with suffers4trillion investment plan drawing, a quarter of the total investment in new projects a substantial increase in87.7%, with the project construction and investment funds and other funds in place gradually, the amount of completed investment will continue to increase rapidly.
In recent years, long-term loans and investment loans ratio changes
Data source: Bureau of statistics, research department of China Construction bank. Left axis for investment growth.
Three is the expansion of domestic demand, to maintain growth as the government ‘s plan to stimulate the economy started to work, our country economic situation has appeared to pick up signs, business investment confidence in gradually restored, the investment will continue to increase. At the end of the first quarter business confidence index for101.1, than on the end of the year increased by 6.5. In addition, in March China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 52.4%,3.4 percentage points higher than last month, in particular the production index and the new orders index already successive two months maintain in50% above, show that industrial economy appeared from low to high and positive change.
Despite the current investment situation is very good, but the rapid growth of investment is the main traffic, water conservancy and other folk capital is unable or unwilling to invest in infrastructure and zoology environment construction industry, government behavior more obvious. A quarter, in long-term lending and loan investment source volume ratio is very high, indicating that the local government financing platform loan amount is very large, the amount of loans lending is the main local government rather than invest unit. In the first quarter of the bank credit to the massive, future will significantly slow down growth situation, if cannot make up the sources of funds for investment proportion nearly half of their funds and other funds increased significantly, sheet relies on governmental finance capital and bank loans will be difficult to continue to maintain rapid growth of investment in development trend.
However, from the funds owned enterprises to grow a circumstance to look, its first quarter year-on-year growth of only13.2%, growth rate of 9 percentage points year-on-year decline. Current, company profit ability is apparently abate, before two months of industry of countrywide dimensions above realizes profit fell 37.3%, loss amount and loss year-over-year increase in respectively 25.6% and36.6%. March, industrial enterprises in production and marketing rate fell to 96.9% last month, respectively, and the same period last year dropped0.4percentage points and 1.12 percentage points. In the market of commodity supply exceeds demand is contradictory and ceaseless aggravate, available for profitable investment industry and product is significantly reduced circumstances, business investment will remain weak, if the government does not publish as soon as possible effectively to promote private investment policy, the future capital slowdown trend is difficult to change.
From other funds growth situation, its first quarter year-on-year growth of 19%, although the growth of8 percentage points higher than last month, but the year declined 4.2percentage points. The purchase of real estate deposit and advance payment for other sources of funds of up to 40% above, in the first quarter of the real estate market turnover is picked up, the growth rate of only 1.6%,24.4 percentage points year-on-year decline of. At present, the real estate market is still in the adjustment period, short-term turnover continued to be difficult to enlarge rapidly, deposits and advance payment slowdown trend may still continue.
A comprehensive analysis of the source of investment funds and investment demand change trend, is expected in the two quarter, investment growth will be further improved, the first half of the total social investment in fixed assets year-on-year increase of around 30%, but the second half of the investment growth rate may be somewhat fall after a rise, civilian investment demand will expand rapidly, sustained high growth has great influence on investment.
Two, the stability of consumer demand growth will not change
A quarter, total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 15%, deduct prices factors, the actual growth of 15.9%,3.6 percentage points year-on-year to speed up, achieve23 years to come is new tall. After the three quarter is expected, consumer demand will continue to maintain steady growth.
The name of the actual growth rate of consumption growth and changes in the news6 pages, the page first123456